A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
